NORTH
CAROLINA EDUCATION NEWS
June 2007
Copyright © 2007 Queue,
Inc.
North
Carolina Coastal Economy Vulnerable to Sea Level Rise
Southern
States Lead the Nation in Advanced Placement and International Baccalaureate
Programs
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In-depth Labor-Force Analysis
Finds Strong Relationship Between
Education and Income for Jobs
Nationally and for Individual States
TodayÕs high school
graduates enter a world in which theyÕll need at least some college to gain
access to decent-paying careers, according to a report released by Education
Week. And those without even a high school diploma will face
increasingly bleak labor-market prospects. The report, Diplomas Count: Ready
for What? Preparing for College, Careers, and Life After High School, draws on two
national databases to examine the distribution of jobs nationally and within
each state, and the relationship between education and pay levels.
The report also includes the latest analysis by the Editorial
Projects in Education Research Center of graduation rates nationwide, finding
that an estimated 1.23 million students, or about 30 percent of the class of
2007, will fail to graduate with their peers. Native American, Hispanic, and
African-American students are among the groups with the lowest graduation
rates.
A Road Map to North Carolina Graduation Policies
To provide context for high school graduation rates, Diplomas
Count examines state policies in three key areas: definitions of college
and workforce readiness, high school completion credentials offered, and exit
exams.
To
see North Carolina Report:
http://www.edweek.org/media/ew/dc/2007/nc_SGB07.pdf
North
CarolinaÕs coastline will continue to experience significant loss in land area,
property and recreational value in the next 30 to 75 years due to projected
changes in climate, leading North Carolina researchers announced.
The
findings appear in the report ÒMeasuring the Impacts of Climate Change on North
Carolina Coastal Resources,Ó which assesses the impact of rising sea levels on
property values, recreation and quality of life, and was conducted by
researchers from Appalachian State University, East Carolina University,
University of North Carolina Wilmington and the Potsdam Institute for Climate
Impact Research. The study finds that:
¥
North CarolinaÕs coastal topography makes it especially vulnerable to sea level
rise and hurricanes—both economically and ecologically.
¥
A one- to three-foot rise in sea level along four North Carolina coastal
counties could mean billions of dollars in private property losses over the
next 75 years.
¥
Recreational fishing and beach trips also are vulnerable to increased erosion
from sea level rise and hurricanes.
¥
Business interruption losses from hurricanes could increase by as much as $157
million per storm event by 2080.
The
study surveyed the counties of New Hanover, Dare, Carteret and Bertie. These
four counties represent a cross-section of the North Carolina coastline in
geographical distribution and economic development, according to the study.
Researchers
found that North CarolinaÕs coast is highly vulnerable to climate change, and
looked at the economic impact global warming could have on its resources. They
also considered how sea level rise would affect damage to property values,
coastal recreation and tourism.
According
to current research, sea levels globally are expected to rise significantly
during the next century. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
estimates that changes in the earthÕs climate could raise global sea levels by
one to more than two feet over the next 25 to 75 years.
The
researchers used the IPCC projections, along with county tax, recreation and
travel, and fishing data to determine their findings.
John
Whitehead, a professor of economics at Appalachian State University, was lead
author. Other contributors were Okmyung ÒPaulÓ Bin from East Carolina
UniversityÕs Department of Economics and Chris Dumas from the Department of
Economics and Finance at UNC Wilmington. Ben Poulter, formerly of Duke
UniversityÕs Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Sciences and now with
the Department of Global Change and Natural Systems at Potsdam Institute for
Climate Impact Research in Germany, assisted with computer modeling of the
non-economic data used to generate the report.
Whitehead
looked at the impact that loss of beach width would have on fishing and
recreational trips.
ÒAnglers
who like to catch saltwater fish but donÕt own boats or have enough money for a
charter boat rental have two options: They can fish off a pier or fish from the
beach,Ó Whitehead said. ÒIf the beach disappears, anglers can switch to the
piers, which may become crowded and less enjoyable. People traveling to the
beach for recreation wonÕt have a similar option.Ó
By
the year 2080, 14 of the 17 recreational swimming beaches in southern North
Carolina could, without adaptation, erode all the way to the road, eliminating
the possibility for beach recreation in those areas.
As
the beach diminishes, Whitehead said, people would spend less time and money at
the coast as a result of the lost recreational opportunities. Using economic
models, he estimated the lost economic value for southern North Carolina
beaches would total $3.9 billion over the next 75 years.
ECUÕs
Okmyung ÒPaulÓ Bin looked at the impact of sea level rise on property value. He
found that losses of $6.9 billion could occur in just four North Carolina
coastal counties during the next 75 years, without adaptation, with the most
significant losses occurring in the vulnerable northern coastal counties.
ÒThe
amount of developed property along the North Carolina coastline has steadily
increased over the last several decades due to a strong preference for coastal
locations,Ó Bin said. ÒThe number of building permits in Carolina Beach during
the last four years alone exceeds the number of permits issued over the
previous 20 years, and the average selling price for residential properties in
Wrightsville Beach has increased more than 200 percent since 2001. This growth,
coupled with soaring property values in North Carolina, has created greater
vulnerability to rising sea levels.Ó
Depending
on the sea level rise scenarios over the next 75 years, Bin found that the
residential property value at risk in Dare County could range from $242 million
to $2.7 billion, and the property value at risk in Carteret County would be
between $26 million and $291 million. More protected New Hanover and Bertie
counties would likely have smaller impacts. New Hanover County could have
residential property value at risk between $37 million and $212 million, and
Bertie CountyÕs risk could range from $2 million to $7 million in property
value.
ÒThese
estimates focus on the loss of property value from permanent inundation,Ó Bin
said. ÒTemporary inundation caused by high tides and storms occurs much sooner in
time than permanent flooding, and the costs associated with it can be quite
large relative to those associated with permanent flooding.Ó
Increased
storm severity would also impact the agriculture, forestry, commercial
fisheries and general business sectors in these counties. UNC Wilmington
economist Chris Dumas estimated that business interruption losses in New
Hanover, Dare, Carteret and Bertie counties associated with an increase in
Category 3 hurricanes would rise by $34 million per storm event by 2030, and by
$157 million per storm event by 2080. Even if there were no increases in
hurricane frequency through 2080, cumulative losses in the four counties could
still exceed $1.4 billion when regional economic growth is considered.
ÒBusiness
interruption losses could be even larger if storm frequency increases, whether
or not storm severity intensifies,Ó Dumas said. ÒAlthough current climate
models could not predict storm frequency changes, if climate change were to
cause an increase in storm frequency, we would expect more frequent flooding,
evacuations, downed power lines – and larger economic impacts.Ó
In
addition to business interruption, increasing storm intensity would also have
serious impacts on agriculture and forestry. Agricultural damage from
hurricanes currently runs at about $50 million for a Category 1 hurricane,
about $200 million for a Category 2 storm, and about $800 million for a
Category 3. Any escalation of hurricane activity would significantly increase
the amount of agricultural damage. Similarly, timber damage assessments
indicate that an increase in hurricane severity from Category 2 to Category 3
can raise timber losses by about $900 million. Hurricane Fran, a Category 3
storm that made landfall in September 1996, damaged 44 percent of the
commercial forest land along the northern coastal plan, an estimated $1.39
billion in lost timber.
Although
work is underway at the North Carolina Division of Marine Fisheries to assess
the impacts of hurricanes on North Carolina fisheries, it is still a work in
progress. Results from limited case studies indicate that commercial fisheries
suffer economic losses primarily in the form of damaged fishing gear and
reduction in the number of safe fishing days. In addition, populations of some
fish species may fall following hurricanes, further reducing fishing
profitability. Climate change would likely increase these losses if storm severity
or frequency escalates.
ÒCoastal
North Carolina has been identified as one of the United States most vulnerable
regions to climate change,Ó Poulter said. ÒMore than 2,000 square miles of
North CarolinaÕs coastal ecosystems and urban areas are below one-meter
elevation and within the range of projected sea level rise from climate change
for the year 2100. This study demonstrates that, as climate change contributes
to inundation, increased shoreline erosion and higher hurricane intensity,
coastal economies will experience significant economic losses in the absence of
mitigation and local adaptation.Ó
Whitehead
hopes the study will be used by policy makers to better understand the benefits
of implementing climate change policy.
ÒUsually,
decision makers focus on one of two things: the benefits of a policy or the
costs of a policy,Ó Whitehead said. ÒRight now, it seems that people are
focusing on the costs of addressing climate change. The benefits of
implementing climate change policy would occur further down the road, which
makes them easier to ignore or postpone. We hope this study will help fill in
some of the gaps in knowledge about this issue.Ó
The
full study is available at http://econ.appstate.edu/climate/. The study was
funded through a grant from the National Commission on Energy Policy, a
bipartisan, non-profit group of leading energy experts.
How Are Southern (SREB) States Doing?
¥Virginia
was the
only SREB state with an average score in 2006 that topped the national average
for its dominant test.
¥
Six ACT states — Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee
and West
Virginia,
and four SAT states — Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina and Virginia—kept pace or gained
ground on the national average for their dominant test.
¥
Two ACT states — Alabama and Mississippi—and one SAT state
— Florida—increased
the percentage of high school seniors tested by at least 10 percentage points.
When compared with national average ACT
and SAT scores, the improvement in SREB states also is significant. In 1997,
none of the SREB states surpassed the national average score for its dominant
test. In 2006, one SREB state, Virginia, surpassed the national average, and
eight other SREB states — Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, North
Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee and West Virginia — narrowed their
gaps with the nation. In all but three SREB states, the percentages of
graduating seniors taking the dominant test increased. Most remarkably, scores
improved at the same time that the percentages of students taking the tests
increased in eight SREB states — Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky,
Mississippi, North Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia and West Virginia.
To see full report, with state by state figures::
http://www.sreb.org/main/Goals/Publications/07E02_ACT_and_SAT_Test_Scores.pdf
Participation in Advanced Placement (AP) and International Baccalaureate (IB)
programs is growing in Southern (SREB) states. SREB's Challenge to Lead Goals for Education
recognize AP courses and the IB curriculum as specific ways that states can
engage high school students in more advanced course work. This report addresses
the continued momentum of SREB states in access to and achievement in these
programs, especially for traditionally underserved student groups. It also
offers suggestions for states interested in strengthening their programs.
To see the full report:
http://www.sreb.org/main/Goals/Publications/07E05_Adv_placement.pdf
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